TheEconomist

Nothing like a day after another one, says the Portuguese.

Everything looked nice today in Brazilian economy - even the stock markets went up again in Sao Paulo (2,11%), following Wall Street (Dow Jones up 1,9, Nasdaq 2,5%).

And, basically, the exuberance spread around by US Federal Reserve with a few more billions given to save banks.

Exchange rates in Brazil keeps on floating, as it should be in this world finance crisis:

US dollar was negotiated by the end ot the day at R$ 1,966 for US$ 1,00 (better than crisis breaking point of 2,0).

All figures are far out in Brazilian economy, at least to Banco Central:

* Foreing Reserves are up again in few days, from US$ 158 billions to US$ 161 this Wednesday;

* Inflation is under control (small pressure on July prices);

* Foreing commerce must end this year with a surplus around US$ 44,5 billion, as Central Bank´s directors told the press this evening in Brasilia.

The balance of commerce registered a surplus of US$ 44,3 last month, just a little bit lower than June´s figures (US$ 44,3 bi).

Well, as a friend from Rio said today at an internet meeting, the only thing President Lula is in debt with Brazil is a deep economic reform.

To cut public expenditures (which are growing as GDP´s 5%) to modernize the country and GNP growth at sustained 7% yr without destroing Amazon forest for that purpose.

Brazilian economy tends to grow less than the rest of world, said International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Instead of 4,7% forecasted by a government-funded researche institute on economics, IMF says Brazil is going to close this year around 4,4% of Gross National Product (GNP) expansion.

Should be the contrary, because Brazil is a large emerging economy (may be the 10th world largest), but the fact is that the world economy as a whole is predicted to growth about 5,2% (instead of former 4,9% in IMF expectations).

But Brazil is in good company: also US economy is shrinking in IMF predictive figures: US should not growth more than 2% ( expected before: 2,2% ).

So what? Forgetting the US huge twin deficits, what should do a 10th world-largest economy like Brazil?

There´s a very delicate economic fine-tunning which can be broken down at any moment in case local monetary authorities do the wrong thing in the wrong moment.

Or in case of eruption of the first real 21st century world economic crisis, like we´re already used to in the 80s and 90s.

 That´s the only real menace to Lula´s second term administration in Brazil: an external crisis.